CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-05-22T13:24:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2013 May 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 24-May 26 2013 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 24-May 26 2013
 May 24 May 25 May 26
00-03UT 2 4 2 
03-06UT 3 4 3 
06-09UT 3 3 2 
09-12UT 2 3 2 
12-15UT 2 3 2 
15-18UT 3 3 2 
18-21UT 4 2 2 
21-00UT 5 (G1) 3 3 
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on day 1 (24 May)
associated with the 22 May CME.
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2013 May 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flares of the period were
a C3/Sf at 23/1450 UTC and a C3 at 23/1847 UTC, both from Region
1756 (S20E22, Ehi/beta-gamma). A few low-level C-class flares were
observed from old Region 1736 (S08, L=139), still behind the eastern
limb and due to return on day one (24 May). Region 1756 showed slight
growth early in the period, but began to show slight decay in the
trailer spot area at the time of this writing. Region 1755 (N10E32,
Dsi/beta-gamma) continued to show a slight decay trend, especially in
the trailer spot area. The other regions on the disk were either stable
or decaying. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed during the period.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
and a slight chance for X-class flares for the next three days (24 - 26
May).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began in
NOAA Scale S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm conditions, but continued
to decrease throughout the period, decreasing to NOAA Scale S1 (Minor)
conditions at 24/0435 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit remains contaminated by the recent proton event and
were unreliable since 22/1420 UTC.
.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain above NOAA
Scale S1 (Minor) thresholds for day one (24 May), and likely into the
first part of day two (25 May). There is a chance for a greater than 10
MeV proton event on day three (26 May). The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely to have unreliable readings until
the greater than 10 MeV proton flux returns to near-background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed, measured at ACE, ranged from 400 km/s to 500 km/s. 
Total magnetic field strength ranged from 4 nT to 8 nT while the Bz
component ranged from +6 nT to -6 nT. The phi angle remained in a
negative (toward) solar sector. ACE/SWEPAM data were suspect due to
proton contamination until around 23/1700 UTC, when the sensors began to
recover.
.Forecast...
Solar wind speeds are expected to become enhanced by mid to late day one
(24 May) due to a glancing blow from the 22 May partial-halo CME. 
Conditions are expected to continue to be enhanced on days two and three
(25-26 May), due to a combination of continued CME effects followed by a
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through the
first half of day one (24 May). By mid to late on day one, a glancing
blow from the 22 May CME is expected to impact the geomagnetic field
causing unsettled to active conditions with a chance for NOAA Scale G1
(Minor) Geomagnetic Storm conditions. Unsettled to active levels are
expected to persist into day two (25 May) as CME effects wane and CH HSS
effects begin. CH HSS effects are expected on day three (26 May),
causing predominately quiet to unsettled levels.

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